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News.Az interviews Vali Alibeyov, vice president of the Association of Development of civil public in Azerbaijan.
How to comment on Uzbekistan’s decision to suspend its participation in the CSTO?
It is difficult to comment on and assess steps of countries such as Uzbekistan, where by virtue of the established political tradition, many decisions are not taking into account vital geopolitical realities but the will of one man who could dislike something that can wound his pride. However, it is impossible to treat and analyze the versions of what happened to try to explain them. Analysts have so far made two main versions – the first is the fact that Uzbekistan has received security guarantees from the U.S. and prepares to “shelter” American military forces after they leave Afghanistan.
The second version is that Uzbekistan’s demarche is associated with the decision of Russia to establish military bases in Kyrgyzstan, with which Uzbekistan has many unresolved border and ethnic problems. In my opinion, the second version is more close to truth – Russia openly strengthens Kyrgyzstan, with which Uzbekistan needs to solve problems, and the same step can also be taken as a direct challenge to the very Karimov, a blow to his reputation. As for obtaining guarantees from the US, I think that Uzbekistan, as many other republics, are well aware of the fact that the US is far, Russia is close.
How will this decision affect the CSTO itself, will this make it stronger or weaker?
Uzbekistan yet didn’t play any active role in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, exactly like other countries. And I agree with the opinion of CSTO officials which declared that the CSTO will not weaken without Uzbekistan – how can weaken an amorphous and stillborn structure?
What do you think about the opinion of some Armenian experts that this decision only reinforces the CSTO because Tashkent’s support to position of Baku on Karabakh allegedly prevented the adoption of coordinated decisions?
What decisions did this organization make and how did Tashkent prevent them? Of course, this type of unprofessional comments is designed for most poorly educated contingent.
Azerbaijan has other allies in the CSTO, except Uzbekistan. This is, in particular, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Can we assume that these countries will prevent a possible anti-Azerbaijani decision of the CSTO?
At present, I would not consider these countries our allies, because in reality they have themselves a lot of problems with Russia, the main ideologist of the CSTO, and they will not “ask for trouble” because of Azerbaijan in the organization , which is dominated by the principle of “chief is always right”. On the other hand, the CSTO, as I said earlier, is a stillborn structure. The CSTO as a tool will do all that is in the interests of Russia, no matter whether other members of the organization agree with its decisions or not.
Armenians seem to realize that the war over Karabakh cannot be considered a legal basis for intervention of CSTO in the conflict on the side of Armenia. Perhaps that is why they are trying to make noise to the whole world that the Azerbaijani army allegedly fires not only at positions of the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also at the territory of Armenia. What in this case is the probability of intervention of CSTO in the Karabakh conflict, if Azerbaijan starts a war for the liberation of Karabakh?
This will depend on many factors, primarily on the geopolitical situation not only in our region. Yes, Russia can and likely will help Armenia in case of initiation of an anti-terrorist operation by Azerbaijan, but no matter how strong Russia is, at a certain geopolitical situation, it simply may not be time for Armenia. Therefore, our strategists and analysts need to work hard to develop multiple models of the situation, and at a convenient point to report them to the government. And then, I think nothing and nobody can stop us to liberate our land.
F.H.
News.Az
