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Vladimir Yevseyev: “There is a high probability of a new war in Nagorno Karabakh”
“There is a high probability of a new war in Nagorno Karabakh,” director of the Russian Center for Socio-Political Studies Russia, analyst on military and political issues, Vladimir Yevseyev said in his interview with APA’s correspondent.
Commenting on the recent tension on the line of contact of the Azerbaijani and Armenian troops, the analyst said that military operations will likely start in the region: “Neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia want to settle on a compromise. The activity of the OSCE Minsk Group, which has been dealing with the resolution of the conflict for more than 20 years, is unproductive. An attempt made by Ukraine during its last year’s OSCE Chairmanship to contribute to solving the problem with the help of the United States failed, all this has led to the escalation of the tension on the contact line of troops.”
According to him, first of all, it is needed to create a security system in the South Caucasus for the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict: “I consider that this security system should not be like a bloc. This system should initially be formed by Russia, Turkey and Iran. These countries should offer several formats that exclude a war for the regional countries. In principle, it is possible. Despite some disagreements between the countries (the Syrian crisis between Turkey and Iran), which can form the security system in the South Caucasus, only these countries can prevent the start of a war in Nagorno Karabakh. On the contrary, the war in Nagorno Karabakh will be inevitable.”
Yevseyev said that the tension on the contact line is mainly caused by snipers: “Consequently, both sides are suffering losses. Civilians are killed or wounded, as well. Unless the snipers are withdrawn from the front line, tension will remain. Those, who are dealing with the resolution of the conflict, should first of all solve this problem.”
To the question “During their visit to the region the co-chairs said the parties would observe ceasefire during Sochi Olympic Games. Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry has today issued a statement that ceasefire was violated on the line of contact, an Azerbaijani serviceman was killed by an Armenian sniper. How would you comment on Armenia’s breaking the promise given to OSCE Minsk Group co-chaired by the US, Russia and France?”, the analyst said: “Armenia’s military forces in Nagorno Karabakh do not act under the dictation of Yerevan, or to be more exact, of President Serzh Sargsyan. The Armenian army deployed in Nagorno Karabakh is in so miserable condition that they do not obey the center and pass decisions themselves. Can one speak about ceasefire under these circumstances? It will be difficult to maintain ceasefire during and after Sochi Olympic Games.”
Yevseyev also touched on Russian Foreign Ministry’s call on declaration of Olympic truce. According to the analyst, it is normal for Moscow to call for Olympic truce. But the conflicting parties are unlikely to obey it.
“Because the parties wish to revenge. All this complicates Russia’s initiative. I do not believe Russia will be able to make Armenia observe the ceasefire. I think the situation is very complicated. Actually, call for truce should not have been made when the Olympic Games started. Hard work should have been done on it. The parties should have been called for it at least a month before the Olympic Games. It is not enough to make this call once. One should work actively with the conflicting parties. Moscow’s Olympic truce call is nothing but its wish,” he said.
Apa.az
