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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should no longer be perceived as a small local difficulty on Russia’s periphery, but as a dangerous source of instability and potential crisis in the EU’s immediate neighborhood, said the study entitled “Nagorno-Karabakh and the arc of crises on Europe’s borders” by the European Policy Centre (EPC), an independent, not-for-profit think tank.
The authors of the study are Amanda Paul (Senior Policy Analyst) and Dennis Sammut (Member of the EPC’s Advisory Council; Director, LINKS).
According to the study, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a military and diplomatic stalemate for more than two decades and peace negotiations under the auspices of the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group (MG), of which Russia, France and the US are co-chairs, have been largely deadlocked since 2011.
“On 19 December 2015, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, met in Switzerland in an effort to break the impasse,” said the authors. “The European Union (EU) has positioned itself on the side-lines of the conflict resolution process, allowing the MG co-chairs to take centre stage. A recent review of the European Neighborhood Policy recognizes that protracted conflicts continue to hamper development in the region. It recommends increasing work with partner countries on security sector reform, and conflict prevention. Given that a new war would not only put at risk key energy infrastructure related to the EU’s new Southern Gas Corridor (SGC); the resulting humanitarian crisis would also very likely bring a another flow of migrants to Europe at a time when the EU is barely dealing with the Syrian refugee crisis.”
Hence the EU should be leading with innovative initiatives, using its soft power skills and experience and not simply endorsing a process that often looks moribund, the study said.
The Karabakh conflict has been increasingly affected by the shifting geopolitics of the region and historical competition between regional powers, according to the study. “Today it risks joining the arc of crises that now stretches from Ukraine, to Syria and North Africa, although many of those involved in the conflict resolution process remain positive that Karabakh can be insulated from the chaos in neighboring regions. They point out that the MG co-chairs continue to work together despite the cooling of relations between the West and Russia,” the authors stressed.
The study also highlighted the role of Russia in the South Caucasus.
“In the South Caucasus, Russia simultaneously plays the role of peacemaker, troublemaker, arms supplier, regional policeman, economic hegemon, and protector of “traditional values”. Moscow has all the tools to wage a hybrid war similar, but even more sophisticated, than the one it is fighting in eastern Ukraine, as its range of soft and hard power tools is even greater. Russia’s actions in Ukraine and more recently in Syria, where it has used its Caspian flotilla to fire missiles at anti-Assad forces, may have been militarily expedient, but have also contributed to Russia’s macho image in the region,” said the study.
According to the authors, of the three co-chairs, Russia is particularly active. Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, recently put forward a number of ideas on how to take the negotiations forward. Although no details are available it is understood that the ideas have been endorsed by France and the US.
“While Azerbaijan welcomed the importance given to the concept of territorial integrity and sovereignty in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Riga Declaration of May 2015, Baku was unhappy that whilst the Russian occupation of Crime was stressed, the EU refused to similarly highlight Armenia’s occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territory. Relations deteriorated further following a particularly tough European Parliament resolution adopted on 10 September 2015. Azerbaijan ended its participation in EURONEST – the parliamentary dimension of the EaP. The resolution, while raising a number of important issues, was unfortunate in its drafting, and reflects the continued absence of a holistic and coordinated EU strategy in the region,” the authors noted.
The authors believe that the upcoming visit of EU Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini to Azerbaijan at the end of February 2016 could trigger a reset in relations.
Apa.az
